15 day weatherforecast Modena (IT)

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    Temperature 6h Precip Wind  
Locationinfo
Region: Emilia Romagna
Latitude: 44.6431°N
Longitude: 10.9341°E
46 masl
Postcode: 41121
Temperature/Precipitation /Pressure Thunder/Dewpoint
    Temperature Pressure 1h Precip Dewpoint Wind UV Cloudcover  
Temperature/Precipitation /Pressure Thunder/Dewpoint
    Temperature Pressure Precip Dewpoint Wind Cloudcover  
  CAPE Lifted Index Hail Supercell Tornado SRH 3km CL BTM PRES CL TOP PRES Swiss DWD icon SMHI TS
Temperature Pressure Wind Precipitation
  EWN Forecast EWN WRFDA DWD ICON FMI HIRLAM MET Norway GFS
FMI Hirlam - 7.5 km EWN WRFDA - 12 km GFS - 25 km Basemap





















































Updatetimes (Europe/Warsaw) Resolution Length Steps
EWN WRFDA 04:15, 10:15, 16:15, 22:15 12 km 73h 1h
FMI Hirlam 07:00, 13:00, 19:00, 01:00 7.5 km 49h 1h
GFS 02:45, 08:45, 14:45, 20:45 25 km 237h 3h
30+ mm
25-30 mm
20-25 mm
15-20 mm
10-15 mm
6-10 mm
4-6 mm
2-4 mm
1-2 mm
0.5-1 mm
0.2-0.5 mm
0.1-0.2 mm
30+ mm
25-30 mm
20-25 mm
15-20 mm
10-15 mm
6-10 mm
4-6 mm
2-4 mm
1-2 mm
0.5-1 mm
0.2-0.5 mm
0.1-0.2 mm
Snowfall
Sleet
Hail
Freezing
30+ mm
25-30 mm
20-25 mm
15-20 mm
10-15 mm
6-10 mm
4-6 mm
2-4 mm
1-2 mm
0.5-1 mm
0.2-0.5 mm
0.1-0.2 mm
Snowfall
Sleet
Hail
Freezing
Thunder
50 mm
40 mm
30 mm
26 mm
22 mm
18 mm
14 mm
10 mm
9 mm
8 mm
7 mm
6 mm
5 mm
4.5 mm
4 mm
3.5 mm
3 mm
2.5 mm
2 mm
1.5 mm
1 mm
0.8 mm
0.6 mm
0.4 mm
0.2 mm
0.05 mm
35°
30°
25°
20°
15°
10°
5°
0°
-5°
-10°
-15°
-20°
-25°
-30°
-35°
33> m/s
29 m/s
25 m/s
21 m/s
17 m/s
14 m/s
11 m/s
8 m/s
5 m/s
3 m/s
0 m/s
2600 J/kg
2400 J/kg
2200 J/kg
2000 J/kg
1800 J/kg
1600 J/kg
1400 J/kg
1200 J/kg
1000 J/kg
800 J/kg
600 J/kg
400 J/kg
200 J/kg
70 dBZ
65 dBZ
60 dBZ
55 dBZ
50 dBZ
45 dBZ
40 dBZ
35 dBZ
30 dBZ
25 dBZ
20 dBZ
15 dBZ
10 dBZ
5 dBZ
-1 K
-2 K
-3 K
-4 K
-5 K
-6 K
-7 K
-8 K
-9 K
950 m²/s²
900 m²/s²
850 m²/s²
800 m²/s²
750 m²/s²
700 m²/s²
650 m²/s²
600 m²/s²
550 m²/s²
500 m²/s²
450 m²/s²
400 m²/s²
350 m²/s²
300 m²/s²
250 m²/s²
200 m²/s²
150 m²/s²
100 m²/s²
46 m/s
44 m/s
42 m/s
40 m/s
38 m/s
36 m/s
34 m/s
32 m/s
30 m/s
28 m/s
26 m/s
24 m/s
22 m/s
20 m/s
16 m/s
12 m/s
8 m/s
4 m/s
30 m/s
28 m/s
26 m/s
24 m/s
22 m/s
20 m/s
18 m/s
16 m/s
14 m/s
12 m/s
10 m/s
8 m/s
6 m/s
4 m/s
2 m/s
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
42
40
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
90+ cm
80-90 cm
70-80 cm
60-70 cm
50-60 cm
40-50 cm
30-40 cm
20-30 cm
10-20 cm
1-10 cm
Snowfall
Sleet
Rain
>120 mm
115 mm
110 mm
105 mm
100 mm
95 mm
90 mm
85 mm
80 mm
75 mm
70 mm
65 mm
60 mm
55 mm
50 mm
45 mm
45 mm
40 mm
35 mm
30 mm
25 mm
20 mm
15 mm
10 mm
5 mm
0.1 mm
960 hPa
880 hPa
800 hPa
720 hPa
640 hPa
560 hPa
584 gpdm
568 gpdm
552 gpdm
536 gpdm
520 gpdm
504 gpdm
488 gpdm
Extremely severe Severe weather Lightning probability
15% 15% 5% 50% 15%

Day




Map






35°
30°
25°
20°
15°
10°
5°
0°
-5°
-10°
-15°
-20°
-25°
-30°
-35°
33> m/s
29 m/s
25 m/s
21 m/s
17 m/s
14 m/s
11 m/s
8 m/s
5 m/s
3 m/s
0 m/s
Extremely severe Severe weather Lightning probability
15% 15% 5% 50% 15%
>120 mm
115 mm
110 mm
105 mm
100 mm
95 mm
90 mm
85 mm
80 mm
75 mm
70 mm
65 mm
60 mm
55 mm
50 mm
45 mm
45 mm
40 mm
35 mm
30 mm
25 mm
20 mm
15 mm
10 mm
5 mm
0.1 mm
Lightning probability maps - Green and yellow colors indicates lightning probability within 40 km of a point. Orange, red and violet are similar levels seen on estofex.org including also probablity for hails and supercells.

dBZ - dBZ stands for decibels relative to Z. It is a meteorological measure of equivalent reflectivity (Z) of a radar signal reflected off a remote object

Cape - Convective available potential energy (CAPE), sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere.

K Index - K-Index is a measure of the thunderstorm potential based on vertical temperature lapse rate, moisture content of the lower atmosphere, and the vertical extent of the moist layer.

TT Index - Convective index used for forecasting severe weather.

WRF - The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is a next-generation mesocale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. WRF is a cooperation between National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Naval Research Laboratory, University of Oklahoma, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This software are runned on our server.

WRFDA - A more advanced version of WRF

Arome - The 2.5 km Arome model. Provided by Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

MET Norway - The proff-default 4km meteorological data is a best-guess selection of meteorological models run at met.no and joined/interpolated into a common dataset. Provided by Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

SMHI - The Hirlam model provided by Swedish meteorological institute.

FMI - The Hirlam model provided by Finnish meteorological institute. Covering only Finland.

GFS - The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA.

GEM-GDPS - The GEM-GDPS is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by the Canadian Meteorological Centre.

Credits/Info: Thanks to Stefan Gofferje at sääkeskus.fi for some of the formulas for GrADS. Infos: Wikipedia.

Accuracy of the forecast

NB! 2015-03-29: Rebuilding the accuracy-test!

The accuracy-check compares measured temperature to the forecasted temperature for ca 500 places north of 52°N up to Nordkapp in North Norway. One criteria for the choosed locations is need of a realible weatherstation (in most cases met office stations). Error-values are in absolute degrees, what means the values are allways positive. The check shows data for last 30 days.
Day 1 Good forecasts

Day 1 Tmax

Day 2 Tmax

Loaded forecasts TOP 50

Total loaded forecasts:
Place Latitude Longitude Weatherforecasts Place Latitude Longitude Weatherforecasts
Values are based on numeric models. We try to get them as accurate as possible but the real weather is depending on many phenomens what can't be picked up automaticly. Therefore, if a value is high (eg lightning), it is not a promise that it will happen!

The EWN-Forecast use multiple free sources as base for the forecast.
In addition, we do run an own run of WRFDA EMS at 12 km resolution whats included in the data. The maps are also generated from the WRFDA EMS-data.

In the forecasts are content and data used from:
NCEP (GFS), The Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM-GDPS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Finnish meteorological institute (FMI), Temis (UV-forecast), Geonames, WXSIM - near private weatherstations with the WXSIM-software.
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